Thai Group (Thailand) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.96
| TGH Stock | THB 12.20 0.10 0.83% |
Thai |
Thai Group Target Price Odds to finish below 7.96
The tendency of Thai Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 7.96 or more in 90 days |
| 12.20 | 90 days | 7.96 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Thai Group to drop to 7.96 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Thai Group Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Thai Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Thai Group Holdings price to stay between 7.96 and its current price of 12.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.13 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Thai Group Holdings has a beta of -0.24. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Thai Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Thai Group Holdings is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Thai Group Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Thai Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Thai Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thai Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Thai Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Thai Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Thai Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Thai Group Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Thai Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Thai Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Thai Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Thai Group Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Thai Group Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Thai Group Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 24.28 B. Net Loss for the year was (3.26 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (7.66 B). | |
| Thai Group Holdings has accumulated about 8.42 B in cash with (4.52 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 11.19. | |
| Roughly 96.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Thai Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Thai Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Thai Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Thai Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 752.1 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 11.8 B |
Thai Group Technical Analysis
Thai Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Thai Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Thai Group Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Thai Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Thai Group Predictive Forecast Models
Thai Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Thai Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Thai Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Thai Group Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Thai Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Thai Group Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Thai Group Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Thai Group Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 24.28 B. Net Loss for the year was (3.26 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (7.66 B). | |
| Thai Group Holdings has accumulated about 8.42 B in cash with (4.52 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 11.19. | |
| Roughly 96.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Thai Stock
Thai Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thai Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thai with respect to the benefits of owning Thai Group security.