Thornburg International Value Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 21.63
| THGCX Fund | USD 21.64 0.10 0.46% |
Thornburg |
Thornburg International Target Price Odds to finish over 21.63
The tendency of Thornburg Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 21.63 in 90 days |
| 21.64 | 90 days | 21.63 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Thornburg International to stay above $ 21.63 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Thornburg International Value probability density function shows the probability of Thornburg Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Thornburg International price to stay between $ 21.63 and its current price of $21.64 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Thornburg International has a beta of 0.0786. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Thornburg International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Thornburg International Value will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Thornburg International Value has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Thornburg International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Thornburg International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thornburg International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thornburg International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Thornburg International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Thornburg International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Thornburg International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Thornburg International Value, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Thornburg International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.69 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.28 |
Thornburg International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Thornburg International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Thornburg International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Thornburg International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund maintains about 8.95% of its assets in cash |
Thornburg International Technical Analysis
Thornburg International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Thornburg Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Thornburg International Value. In general, you should focus on analyzing Thornburg Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Thornburg International Predictive Forecast Models
Thornburg International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Thornburg International's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Thornburg International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Thornburg International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Thornburg International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Thornburg International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Thornburg International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund maintains about 8.95% of its assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Thornburg Mutual Fund
Thornburg International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thornburg Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thornburg with respect to the benefits of owning Thornburg International security.
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