Turkish Airlines (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 279.75
| THYAO Stock | TRY 296.25 16.75 5.99% |
Turkish |
Turkish Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 279.75
The tendency of Turkish Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 279.75 or more in 90 days |
| 296.25 | 90 days | 279.75 | about 38.36 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Turkish Airlines to drop to 279.75 or more in 90 days from now is about 38.36 (This Turkish Airlines probability density function shows the probability of Turkish Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Turkish Airlines price to stay between 279.75 and its current price of 296.25 at the end of the 90-day period is about 48.08 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Turkish Airlines has a beta of 0.5. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Turkish Airlines average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Turkish Airlines will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Turkish Airlines has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Turkish Airlines Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Turkish Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Turkish Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Turkish Airlines Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Turkish Airlines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Turkish Airlines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Turkish Airlines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Turkish Airlines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.50 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 11.77 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Turkish Airlines Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Turkish Airlines for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Turkish Airlines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Turkish Airlines generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Turkish Airlines has accumulated 2.33 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.7, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Turkish Airlines has a current ratio of 0.77, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Turkish Airlines until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Turkish Airlines' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Turkish Airlines sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Turkish to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Turkish Airlines' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 49.0% of Turkish Airlines outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Turkish Airlines Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Turkish Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Turkish Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Turkish Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.4 B |
Turkish Airlines Technical Analysis
Turkish Airlines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Turkish Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Turkish Airlines. In general, you should focus on analyzing Turkish Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Turkish Airlines Predictive Forecast Models
Turkish Airlines' time-series forecasting models is one of many Turkish Airlines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Turkish Airlines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Turkish Airlines
Checking the ongoing alerts about Turkish Airlines for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Turkish Airlines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Turkish Airlines generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Turkish Airlines has accumulated 2.33 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.7, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Turkish Airlines has a current ratio of 0.77, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Turkish Airlines until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Turkish Airlines' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Turkish Airlines sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Turkish to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Turkish Airlines' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 49.0% of Turkish Airlines outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Turkish Stock
Turkish Airlines financial ratios help investors to determine whether Turkish Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Turkish with respect to the benefits of owning Turkish Airlines security.