Thornburg International Growth Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 19.13

TINVX Fund  USD 23.50  0.15  0.63%   
Thornburg International's future price is the expected price of Thornburg International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Thornburg International Growth performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Thornburg International Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Thornburg International Correlation, Thornburg International Hype Analysis, Thornburg International Volatility, Thornburg International History as well as Thornburg International Performance.
  
Please specify Thornburg International's target price for which you would like Thornburg International odds to be computed.

Thornburg International Target Price Odds to finish below 19.13

The tendency of Thornburg Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 19.13  or more in 90 days
 23.50 90 days 19.13 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Thornburg International to drop to $ 19.13  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Thornburg International Growth probability density function shows the probability of Thornburg Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Thornburg International price to stay between $ 19.13  and its current price of $23.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.33 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Thornburg International has a beta of 0.13. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Thornburg International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Thornburg International Growth will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Thornburg International Growth has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Thornburg International Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Thornburg International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thornburg International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thornburg International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
22.3423.5024.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
22.7123.8725.03
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
23.0024.1625.31
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
22.5324.6626.79
Details

Thornburg International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Thornburg International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Thornburg International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Thornburg International Growth, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Thornburg International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.16
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.13
σ
Overall volatility
1.24
Ir
Information ratio -0.23

Thornburg International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Thornburg International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Thornburg International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Thornburg International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund generated three year return of -1.0%
Thornburg International maintains about 5.02% of its assets in cash

Thornburg International Technical Analysis

Thornburg International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Thornburg Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Thornburg International Growth. In general, you should focus on analyzing Thornburg Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Thornburg International Predictive Forecast Models

Thornburg International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Thornburg International's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Thornburg International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Thornburg International

Checking the ongoing alerts about Thornburg International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Thornburg International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Thornburg International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund generated three year return of -1.0%
Thornburg International maintains about 5.02% of its assets in cash

Other Information on Investing in Thornburg Mutual Fund

Thornburg International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thornburg Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thornburg with respect to the benefits of owning Thornburg International security.
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