Trilogy Metals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.66
| TMQ Stock | CAD 1.60 0.10 5.88% |
Trilogy |
Trilogy Metals Target Price Odds to finish over 16.66
The tendency of Trilogy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over C$ 16.66 or more in 90 days |
| 1.60 | 90 days | 16.66 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Trilogy Metals to move over C$ 16.66 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Trilogy Metals probability density function shows the probability of Trilogy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Trilogy Metals price to stay between its current price of C$ 1.60 and C$ 16.66 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.68 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.87 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Trilogy Metals will likely underperform. Moreover Trilogy Metals has an alpha of 1.7347, implying that it can generate a 1.73 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Trilogy Metals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Trilogy Metals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trilogy Metals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Trilogy Metals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Trilogy Metals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Trilogy Metals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Trilogy Metals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Trilogy Metals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.73 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.87 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Trilogy Metals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Trilogy Metals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Trilogy Metals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Trilogy Metals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Trilogy Metals may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Trilogy Metals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Trilogy Metals has accumulated 33 K in total debt. Trilogy Metals has a current ratio of 0.83, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Trilogy Metals until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Trilogy Metals' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Trilogy Metals sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Trilogy to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Trilogy Metals' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Net Loss for the year was (14.95 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.61 M). | |
| Trilogy Metals has accumulated about 2.57 M in cash with (3.09 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.2. | |
| Roughly 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Trilogy Metals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Trilogy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Trilogy Metals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trilogy Metals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 152.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.8 M | |
| Shares Float | 84.5 M |
Trilogy Metals Technical Analysis
Trilogy Metals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Trilogy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Trilogy Metals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Trilogy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Trilogy Metals Predictive Forecast Models
Trilogy Metals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Trilogy Metals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Trilogy Metals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Trilogy Metals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Trilogy Metals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Trilogy Metals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Trilogy Metals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Trilogy Metals may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Trilogy Metals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Trilogy Metals has accumulated 33 K in total debt. Trilogy Metals has a current ratio of 0.83, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Trilogy Metals until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Trilogy Metals' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Trilogy Metals sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Trilogy to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Trilogy Metals' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Net Loss for the year was (14.95 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.61 M). | |
| Trilogy Metals has accumulated about 2.57 M in cash with (3.09 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.2. | |
| Roughly 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Check out Trilogy Metals Backtesting, Trilogy Metals Valuation, Trilogy Metals Correlation, Trilogy Metals Hype Analysis, Trilogy Metals Volatility, Trilogy Metals History as well as Trilogy Metals Performance. To learn how to invest in Trilogy Stock, please use our How to Invest in Trilogy Metals guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.