True North Commercial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 15.20
| TNT-UN Stock | CAD 11.52 0.16 1.41% |
True |
True North Target Price Odds to finish over 15.20
The tendency of True Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over C$ 15.20 or more in 90 days |
| 11.52 | 90 days | 15.20 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of True North to move over C$ 15.20 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This True North Commercial probability density function shows the probability of True Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of True North Commercial price to stay between its current price of C$ 11.52 and C$ 15.20 at the end of the 90-day period is about 76.88 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon True North has a beta of 0.72. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, True North average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding True North Commercial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally True North Commercial has an alpha of 0.1295, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). True North Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for True North
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as True North Commercial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of True North's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
True North Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. True North is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the True North's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold True North Commercial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of True North within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.72 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
True North Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of True North for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for True North Commercial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| True North had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| True North has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| True North has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| True North Commercial has accumulated 820.99 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 162.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. True North Commercial has a current ratio of 0.06, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist True North until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, True North's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like True North Commercial sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for True to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about True North's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 132.2 M. Net Loss for the year was (40.62 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 86.48 M. | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: True North Strong Leasing Quarter Reduces Risk - Seeking Alpha |
True North Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of True Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential True North's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. True North's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.9 M |
True North Technical Analysis
True North's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. True Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of True North Commercial. In general, you should focus on analyzing True Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
True North Predictive Forecast Models
True North's time-series forecasting models is one of many True North's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary True North's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about True North Commercial
Checking the ongoing alerts about True North for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for True North Commercial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| True North had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| True North has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| True North has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| True North Commercial has accumulated 820.99 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 162.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. True North Commercial has a current ratio of 0.06, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist True North until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, True North's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like True North Commercial sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for True to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about True North's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 132.2 M. Net Loss for the year was (40.62 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 86.48 M. | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: True North Strong Leasing Quarter Reduces Risk - Seeking Alpha |
Other Information on Investing in True Stock
True North financial ratios help investors to determine whether True Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in True with respect to the benefits of owning True North security.