Tuniu Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.12
| TOUR Stock | USD 1.10 0.06 5.77% |
Tuniu |
Tuniu Corp Target Price Odds to finish below 1.12
The tendency of Tuniu Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 1.12 after 90 days |
| 1.10 | 90 days | 1.12 | about 56.89 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tuniu Corp to stay under $ 1.12 after 90 days from now is about 56.89 (This Tuniu Corp probability density function shows the probability of Tuniu Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tuniu Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 1.10 and $ 1.12 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.66 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Tuniu Corp has a beta of 0.59. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Tuniu Corp average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Tuniu Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Tuniu Corp has an alpha of 0.6175, implying that it can generate a 0.62 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Tuniu Corp Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Tuniu Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tuniu Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tuniu Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tuniu Corp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tuniu Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tuniu Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tuniu Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tuniu Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.62 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Tuniu Corp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Tuniu Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Tuniu Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Tuniu Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Tuniu Corp may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Tuniu Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Tuniu Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 441.27 M. Net Loss for the year was (99.29 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 89.55 M. |
Tuniu Corp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Tuniu Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Tuniu Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tuniu Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 123.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Tuniu Corp Technical Analysis
Tuniu Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tuniu Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tuniu Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tuniu Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Tuniu Corp Predictive Forecast Models
Tuniu Corp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Tuniu Corp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tuniu Corp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Tuniu Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Tuniu Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Tuniu Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Tuniu Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Tuniu Corp may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Tuniu Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Tuniu Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 441.27 M. Net Loss for the year was (99.29 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 89.55 M. |
Additional Tools for Tuniu Stock Analysis
When running Tuniu Corp's price analysis, check to measure Tuniu Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tuniu Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Tuniu Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tuniu Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tuniu Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tuniu Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.