Theriva Biologics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.75
| TOVX Stock | USD 1.34 0.06 4.69% |
Theriva |
Theriva Biologics Target Price Odds to finish below 11.75
The tendency of Theriva Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 11.75 after 90 days |
| 1.34 | 90 days | 11.75 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Theriva Biologics to stay under $ 11.75 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Theriva Biologics probability density function shows the probability of Theriva Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Theriva Biologics price to stay between its current price of $ 1.34 and $ 11.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.86 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.34 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Theriva Biologics will likely underperform. Additionally Theriva Biologics has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Theriva Biologics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Theriva Biologics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Theriva Biologics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Theriva Biologics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Theriva Biologics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Theriva Biologics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Theriva Biologics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Theriva Biologics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Theriva Biologics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.72 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Theriva Biologics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Theriva Biologics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Theriva Biologics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Theriva Biologics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Theriva Biologics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Theriva Biologics may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Theriva Biologics has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (18.35 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Theriva Biologics currently holds about 52.27 M in cash with (19 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.3, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Theriva Biologics has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from medcitynews.com: Health Leaders Applaud Bidens Proposal to Expand MedicareMedicaid Coverage for Anti-Obesity Medications |
Theriva Biologics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Theriva Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Theriva Biologics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Theriva Biologics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 644.3 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23.2 M |
Theriva Biologics Technical Analysis
Theriva Biologics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Theriva Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Theriva Biologics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Theriva Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Theriva Biologics Predictive Forecast Models
Theriva Biologics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Theriva Biologics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Theriva Biologics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Theriva Biologics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Theriva Biologics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Theriva Biologics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Theriva Biologics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Theriva Biologics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Theriva Biologics may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Theriva Biologics has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (18.35 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Theriva Biologics currently holds about 52.27 M in cash with (19 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.3, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Theriva Biologics has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from medcitynews.com: Health Leaders Applaud Bidens Proposal to Expand MedicareMedicaid Coverage for Anti-Obesity Medications |
Additional Tools for Theriva Stock Analysis
When running Theriva Biologics' price analysis, check to measure Theriva Biologics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Theriva Biologics is operating at the current time. Most of Theriva Biologics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Theriva Biologics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Theriva Biologics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Theriva Biologics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.