Tauron Polska (Poland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.27
| TPE Stock | 3.55 0.15 4.41% |
Tauron |
Tauron Polska Target Price Odds to finish over 5.27
The tendency of Tauron Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 5.27 or more in 90 days |
| 3.55 | 90 days | 5.27 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tauron Polska to move over 5.27 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Tauron Polska Energia probability density function shows the probability of Tauron Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tauron Polska Energia price to stay between its current price of 3.55 and 5.27 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.92 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Tauron Polska Energia has a beta of -0.18. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Tauron Polska are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Tauron Polska Energia is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Tauron Polska Energia has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Tauron Polska Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Tauron Polska
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tauron Polska Energia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tauron Polska's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tauron Polska Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tauron Polska is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tauron Polska's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tauron Polska Energia, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tauron Polska within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0021 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Tauron Polska Technical Analysis
Tauron Polska's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tauron Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tauron Polska Energia. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tauron Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Tauron Polska Predictive Forecast Models
Tauron Polska's time-series forecasting models is one of many Tauron Polska's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tauron Polska's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Tauron Polska in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Tauron Polska's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Tauron Polska options trading.
Additional Tools for Tauron Stock Analysis
When running Tauron Polska's price analysis, check to measure Tauron Polska's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tauron Polska is operating at the current time. Most of Tauron Polska's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tauron Polska's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tauron Polska's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tauron Polska to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.