Transtema Group (Sweden) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.22
| TRANS Stock | SEK 16.10 0.80 5.23% |
Transtema |
Transtema Group Target Price Odds to finish below 14.22
The tendency of Transtema Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to kr 14.22 or more in 90 days |
| 16.10 | 90 days | 14.22 | about 5.08 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Transtema Group to drop to kr 14.22 or more in 90 days from now is about 5.08 (This Transtema Group AB probability density function shows the probability of Transtema Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Transtema Group AB price to stay between kr 14.22 and its current price of kr16.1 at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.49 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Transtema Group has a beta of 0.9. This usually implies Transtema Group AB market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Transtema Group is expected to follow. Additionally Transtema Group AB has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Transtema Group Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Transtema Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Transtema Group AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Transtema Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Transtema Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Transtema Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Transtema Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Transtema Group AB, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Transtema Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.90 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Transtema Group Technical Analysis
Transtema Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Transtema Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Transtema Group AB. In general, you should focus on analyzing Transtema Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Transtema Group Predictive Forecast Models
Transtema Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Transtema Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Transtema Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Transtema Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Transtema Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Transtema Group options trading.
Additional Tools for Transtema Stock Analysis
When running Transtema Group's price analysis, check to measure Transtema Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Transtema Group is operating at the current time. Most of Transtema Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Transtema Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Transtema Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Transtema Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.