TRANSCORP HOTELS (Nigeria) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 107.32
| TRANSCOHOT | 106.00 0.00 0.00% |
TRANSCORP |
TRANSCORP HOTELS Target Price Odds to finish below 107.32
The tendency of TRANSCORP Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 107.32 after 90 days |
| 106.00 | 90 days | 107.32 | about 90.93 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TRANSCORP HOTELS to stay under 107.32 after 90 days from now is about 90.93 (This TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC probability density function shows the probability of TRANSCORP Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC price to stay between its current price of 106.00 and 107.32 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon TRANSCORP HOTELS has a beta of 0.0165. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, TRANSCORP HOTELS average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC has an alpha of 0.2465, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). TRANSCORP HOTELS Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for TRANSCORP HOTELS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TRANSCORP HOTELS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TRANSCORP HOTELS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TRANSCORP HOTELS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TRANSCORP HOTELS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TRANSCORP HOTELS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.80 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
TRANSCORP HOTELS Technical Analysis
TRANSCORP HOTELS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TRANSCORP Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing TRANSCORP Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
TRANSCORP HOTELS Predictive Forecast Models
TRANSCORP HOTELS's time-series forecasting models is one of many TRANSCORP HOTELS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TRANSCORP HOTELS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards TRANSCORP HOTELS in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, TRANSCORP HOTELS's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from TRANSCORP HOTELS options trading.