Catalystsmh Total Return Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 4.99
| TRIFX Fund | USD 4.98 0.02 0.40% |
Catalyst/smh |
Catalyst/smh Total Target Price Odds to finish below 4.99
The tendency of Catalyst/smh Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 4.99 after 90 days |
| 4.98 | 90 days | 4.99 | roughly 97.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Catalyst/smh Total to stay under $ 4.99 after 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This Catalystsmh Total Return probability density function shows the probability of Catalyst/smh Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Catalystsmh Total Return price to stay between its current price of $ 4.98 and $ 4.99 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.06 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Catalyst/smh Total has a beta of 0.35. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Catalyst/smh Total average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Catalystsmh Total Return will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Catalystsmh Total Return has an alpha of 0.0245, implying that it can generate a 0.0245 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Catalyst/smh Total Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Catalyst/smh Total
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catalystsmh Total Return. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Catalyst/smh Total Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Catalyst/smh Total is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Catalyst/smh Total's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Catalystsmh Total Return, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Catalyst/smh Total within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Catalyst/smh Total Technical Analysis
Catalyst/smh Total's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Catalyst/smh Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Catalystsmh Total Return. In general, you should focus on analyzing Catalyst/smh Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Catalyst/smh Total Predictive Forecast Models
Catalyst/smh Total's time-series forecasting models is one of many Catalyst/smh Total's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Catalyst/smh Total's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Catalyst/smh Total in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Catalyst/smh Total's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Catalyst/smh Total options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Catalyst/smh Mutual Fund
Catalyst/smh Total financial ratios help investors to determine whether Catalyst/smh Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Catalyst/smh with respect to the benefits of owning Catalyst/smh Total security.
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