Trustco Bank Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19.60
| TRST Stock | USD 36.78 0.36 0.99% |
TrustCo |
TrustCo Bank Target Price Odds to finish below 19.60
The tendency of TrustCo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 19.60 or more in 90 days |
| 36.78 | 90 days | 19.60 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TrustCo Bank to drop to $ 19.60 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This TrustCo Bank Corp probability density function shows the probability of TrustCo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TrustCo Bank Corp price to stay between $ 19.60 and its current price of $36.78 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.72 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.18 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, TrustCo Bank will likely underperform. Additionally TrustCo Bank Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. TrustCo Bank Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for TrustCo Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TrustCo Bank Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TrustCo Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TrustCo Bank Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TrustCo Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TrustCo Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TrustCo Bank Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TrustCo Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.96 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
TrustCo Bank Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of TrustCo Bank for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for TrustCo Bank Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| TrustCo Bank Corp has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: TrustCo Bank Corp NY A Standout No Matter the Economic Environment |
TrustCo Bank Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TrustCo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential TrustCo Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TrustCo Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 578 M |
TrustCo Bank Technical Analysis
TrustCo Bank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TrustCo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TrustCo Bank Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing TrustCo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
TrustCo Bank Predictive Forecast Models
TrustCo Bank's time-series forecasting models is one of many TrustCo Bank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TrustCo Bank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about TrustCo Bank Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about TrustCo Bank for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for TrustCo Bank Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| TrustCo Bank Corp has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: TrustCo Bank Corp NY A Standout No Matter the Economic Environment |
Additional Tools for TrustCo Stock Analysis
When running TrustCo Bank's price analysis, check to measure TrustCo Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TrustCo Bank is operating at the current time. Most of TrustCo Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TrustCo Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TrustCo Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TrustCo Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.