TUI AG (Germany) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 9.46
| TUI1 Stock | 7.51 0.02 0.27% |
TUI |
TUI AG Target Price Odds to finish over 9.46
The tendency of TUI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 9.46 or more in 90 days |
| 7.51 | 90 days | 9.46 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TUI AG to move over 9.46 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This TUI AG probability density function shows the probability of TUI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TUI AG price to stay between its current price of 7.51 and 9.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.65 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon TUI AG has a beta of 0.27. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, TUI AG average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding TUI AG will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally TUI AG has an alpha of 0.3227, implying that it can generate a 0.32 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). TUI AG Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for TUI AG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TUI AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TUI AG Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TUI AG is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TUI AG's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TUI AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TUI AG within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
TUI AG Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of TUI AG for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for TUI AG can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| TUI AG has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 16.54 B. Net Loss for the year was (212.6 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 955.6 M. | |
| About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
TUI AG Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TUI Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential TUI AG's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TUI AG's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 B |
TUI AG Technical Analysis
TUI AG's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TUI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TUI AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing TUI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
TUI AG Predictive Forecast Models
TUI AG's time-series forecasting models is one of many TUI AG's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TUI AG's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about TUI AG
Checking the ongoing alerts about TUI AG for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for TUI AG help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| TUI AG has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 16.54 B. Net Loss for the year was (212.6 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 955.6 M. | |
| About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in TUI Stock
TUI AG financial ratios help investors to determine whether TUI Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TUI with respect to the benefits of owning TUI AG security.