Turkiye Petrol (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 144.37
| TUPRS Stock | TRY 147.70 0.80 0.54% |
Turkiye |
Turkiye Petrol Target Price Odds to finish below 144.37
The tendency of Turkiye Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 144.37 or more in 90 days |
| 147.70 | 90 days | 144.37 | about 13.03 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Turkiye Petrol to drop to 144.37 or more in 90 days from now is about 13.03 (This Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri probability density function shows the probability of Turkiye Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Turkiye Petrol Rafin price to stay between 144.37 and its current price of 147.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.79 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Turkiye Petrol has a beta of 0.34. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Turkiye Petrol average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Turkiye Petrol Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Turkiye Petrol
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Turkiye Petrol Rafin. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Turkiye Petrol's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Turkiye Petrol Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Turkiye Petrol is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Turkiye Petrol's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Turkiye Petrol within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.73 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Turkiye Petrol Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Turkiye Petrol for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Turkiye Petrol Rafin can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Turkiye Petrol Rafin generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 53.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Turkiye Petrol Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Turkiye Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Turkiye Petrol's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Turkiye Petrol's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 275.3 M |
Turkiye Petrol Technical Analysis
Turkiye Petrol's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Turkiye Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri. In general, you should focus on analyzing Turkiye Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Turkiye Petrol Predictive Forecast Models
Turkiye Petrol's time-series forecasting models is one of many Turkiye Petrol's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Turkiye Petrol's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Turkiye Petrol Rafin
Checking the ongoing alerts about Turkiye Petrol for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Turkiye Petrol Rafin help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Turkiye Petrol Rafin generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 53.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Turkiye Stock
Turkiye Petrol financial ratios help investors to determine whether Turkiye Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Turkiye with respect to the benefits of owning Turkiye Petrol security.