United Airlines (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 279.55
| U1AL34 Stock | BRL 280.84 4.09 1.48% |
United |
United Airlines Target Price Odds to finish over 279.55
The tendency of United Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above R$ 279.55 in 90 days |
| 280.84 | 90 days | 279.55 | roughly 2.38 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of United Airlines to stay above R$ 279.55 in 90 days from now is roughly 2.38 (This United Airlines Holdings probability density function shows the probability of United Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of United Airlines Holdings price to stay between R$ 279.55 and its current price of R$280.84 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon United Airlines Holdings has a beta of -0.37. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding United Airlines are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, United Airlines Holdings is likely to outperform the market. Moreover United Airlines Holdings has an alpha of 1.4249, implying that it can generate a 1.42 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). United Airlines Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for United Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Airlines Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.United Airlines Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. United Airlines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the United Airlines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold United Airlines Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of United Airlines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.42 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.37 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 50.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.42 |
United Airlines Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of United Airlines for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for United Airlines Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| United Airlines appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| United is showing solid risk-adjusted performance over 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 24.63 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.96 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 13.1 B. |
United Airlines Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of United Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential United Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 323.8 M |
United Airlines Technical Analysis
United Airlines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. United Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of United Airlines Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing United Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
United Airlines Predictive Forecast Models
United Airlines' time-series forecasting models is one of many United Airlines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary United Airlines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about United Airlines Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about United Airlines for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for United Airlines Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| United Airlines appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| United is showing solid risk-adjusted performance over 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 24.63 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.96 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 13.1 B. |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in United Stock
When determining whether United Airlines Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze United Airlines' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact United Airlines' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding United Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out United Airlines Backtesting, United Airlines Valuation, United Airlines Correlation, United Airlines Hype Analysis, United Airlines Volatility, United Airlines History as well as United Airlines Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.