UBM Development (Austria) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.00
| UBS Stock | EUR 17.10 0.55 3.12% |
UBM |
UBM Development Target Price Odds to finish below 16.00
The tendency of UBM Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 16.00 or more in 90 days |
| 17.10 | 90 days | 16.00 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UBM Development to drop to € 16.00 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This UBM Development AG probability density function shows the probability of UBM Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UBM Development AG price to stay between € 16.00 and its current price of €17.1 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon UBM Development has a beta of 0.25. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, UBM Development average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding UBM Development AG will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally UBM Development AG has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. UBM Development Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for UBM Development
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UBM Development AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.UBM Development Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UBM Development is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UBM Development's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UBM Development AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UBM Development within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.3 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.10 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.26 |
UBM Development Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of UBM Development for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for UBM Development AG can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| UBM Development AG generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| UBM Development AG has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| UBM Development generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 55.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
UBM Development Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UBM Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UBM Development's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UBM Development's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.5 M |
UBM Development Technical Analysis
UBM Development's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UBM Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UBM Development AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing UBM Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UBM Development Predictive Forecast Models
UBM Development's time-series forecasting models is one of many UBM Development's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UBM Development's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about UBM Development AG
Checking the ongoing alerts about UBM Development for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for UBM Development AG help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| UBM Development AG generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| UBM Development AG has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| UBM Development generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 55.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Other Information on Investing in UBM Stock
UBM Development financial ratios help investors to determine whether UBM Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in UBM with respect to the benefits of owning UBM Development security.