UniCredit SpA (Poland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 142.05
| UCG Stock | 163.80 5.74 3.39% |
UniCredit |
UniCredit SpA Target Price Odds to finish below 142.05
The tendency of UniCredit Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 142.05 or more in 90 days |
| 163.80 | 90 days | 142.05 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UniCredit SpA to drop to 142.05 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This UniCredit SpA probability density function shows the probability of UniCredit Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UniCredit SpA price to stay between 142.05 and its current price of 163.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 51.77 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon UniCredit SpA has a beta of 0.43. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, UniCredit SpA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding UniCredit SpA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally UniCredit SpA has an alpha of 0.0758, implying that it can generate a 0.0758 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). UniCredit SpA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for UniCredit SpA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UniCredit SpA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UniCredit SpA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
UniCredit SpA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UniCredit SpA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UniCredit SpA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UniCredit SpA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UniCredit SpA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0 |
UniCredit SpA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of UniCredit SpA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for UniCredit SpA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| UniCredit SpA generates negative cash flow from operations |
UniCredit SpA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UniCredit Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UniCredit SpA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UniCredit SpA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B |
UniCredit SpA Technical Analysis
UniCredit SpA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UniCredit Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UniCredit SpA. In general, you should focus on analyzing UniCredit Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UniCredit SpA Predictive Forecast Models
UniCredit SpA's time-series forecasting models is one of many UniCredit SpA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UniCredit SpA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about UniCredit SpA
Checking the ongoing alerts about UniCredit SpA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for UniCredit SpA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| UniCredit SpA generates negative cash flow from operations |
Additional Tools for UniCredit Stock Analysis
When running UniCredit SpA's price analysis, check to measure UniCredit SpA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UniCredit SpA is operating at the current time. Most of UniCredit SpA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UniCredit SpA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UniCredit SpA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UniCredit SpA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.