Uscf Etf Trust Etf Odds of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 31.16
| UDI Etf | USD 31.32 0.06 0.19% |
USCF |
USCF ETF Target Price Odds to finish below 31.16
The tendency of USCF Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 31.16 or more in 90 days |
| 31.32 | 90 days | 31.16 | roughly 97.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of USCF ETF to drop to $ 31.16 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This USCF ETF Trust probability density function shows the probability of USCF Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of USCF ETF Trust price to stay between $ 31.16 and its current price of $31.32 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.44 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon USCF ETF has a beta of 0.9. This usually implies USCF ETF Trust market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, USCF ETF is expected to follow. Additionally USCF ETF Trust has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. USCF ETF Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for USCF ETF
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as USCF ETF Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of USCF ETF's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
USCF ETF Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. USCF ETF is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the USCF ETF's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold USCF ETF Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of USCF ETF within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0042 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.90 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
USCF ETF Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of USCF Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential USCF ETF's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. USCF ETF's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
USCF ETF Technical Analysis
USCF ETF's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. USCF Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of USCF ETF Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing USCF Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
USCF ETF Predictive Forecast Models
USCF ETF's time-series forecasting models is one of many USCF ETF's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary USCF ETF's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards USCF ETF in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, USCF ETF's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from USCF ETF options trading.
Check out USCF ETF Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, USCF ETF Correlation, USCF ETF Hype Analysis, USCF ETF Volatility, USCF ETF History as well as USCF ETF Performance. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
The market value of USCF ETF Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of USCF that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of USCF ETF's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is USCF ETF's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because USCF ETF's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect USCF ETF's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between USCF ETF's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if USCF ETF is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, USCF ETF's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.