Ultrapar Participaes (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 22.82
| UGPA3 Stock | BRL 17.94 0.85 4.97% |
Ultrapar |
Ultrapar Participaes Target Price Odds to finish over 22.82
The tendency of Ultrapar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 22.82 or more in 90 days |
| 17.94 | 90 days | 22.82 | about 12.08 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ultrapar Participaes to move over R$ 22.82 or more in 90 days from now is about 12.08 (This Ultrapar Participaes SA probability density function shows the probability of Ultrapar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ultrapar Participaes price to stay between its current price of R$ 17.94 and R$ 22.82 at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.84 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ultrapar Participaes has a beta of 0.14. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Ultrapar Participaes average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ultrapar Participaes SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ultrapar Participaes SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ultrapar Participaes Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ultrapar Participaes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ultrapar Participaes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ultrapar Participaes Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ultrapar Participaes is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ultrapar Participaes' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ultrapar Participaes SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ultrapar Participaes within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.41 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.52 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.25 |
Ultrapar Participaes Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ultrapar Participaes for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ultrapar Participaes can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ultrapar Participaes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Ultrapar Participaes Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ultrapar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ultrapar Participaes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ultrapar Participaes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.1 B |
Ultrapar Participaes Technical Analysis
Ultrapar Participaes' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ultrapar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ultrapar Participaes SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ultrapar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ultrapar Participaes Predictive Forecast Models
Ultrapar Participaes' time-series forecasting models is one of many Ultrapar Participaes' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ultrapar Participaes' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ultrapar Participaes
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ultrapar Participaes for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ultrapar Participaes help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ultrapar Participaes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Additional Tools for Ultrapar Stock Analysis
When running Ultrapar Participaes' price analysis, check to measure Ultrapar Participaes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ultrapar Participaes is operating at the current time. Most of Ultrapar Participaes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ultrapar Participaes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ultrapar Participaes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ultrapar Participaes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.