United Homes Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 24.07
| UHG Stock | 4.20 0.28 6.25% |
United |
United Homes Target Price Odds to finish over 24.07
The tendency of United Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 24.07 or more in 90 days |
| 4.20 | 90 days | 24.07 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of United Homes to move over 24.07 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This United Homes Group probability density function shows the probability of United Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of United Homes Group price to stay between its current price of 4.20 and 24.07 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.16 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, United Homes will likely underperform. Additionally United Homes Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. United Homes Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for United Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Homes Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.United Homes Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. United Homes is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the United Homes' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold United Homes Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of United Homes within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.55 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.47 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
United Homes Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of United Homes for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for United Homes Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| United Homes Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| United Homes Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| United Homes Group has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 43.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As United Homes Group, Inc. Shares Dive 29 |
United Homes Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of United Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential United Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 55.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 56.7 M |
United Homes Technical Analysis
United Homes' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. United Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of United Homes Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing United Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
United Homes Predictive Forecast Models
United Homes' time-series forecasting models is one of many United Homes' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary United Homes' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about United Homes Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about United Homes for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for United Homes Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| United Homes Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| United Homes Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| United Homes Group has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 43.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As United Homes Group, Inc. Shares Dive 29 |
Check out United Homes Backtesting, United Homes Valuation, United Homes Correlation, United Homes Hype Analysis, United Homes Volatility, United Homes History as well as United Homes Performance. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Homes. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Homes listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.88) | Earnings Share (0.59) | Revenue Per Share 9.214 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.352 | Return On Assets 0.0193 |
The market value of United Homes Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Homes' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Homes' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Homes' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Homes' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Homes' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Homes is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Homes' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.