Capital Growth Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 14.55

UICGX Fund  USD 14.74  0.08  0.55%   
Capital Growth's future price is the expected price of Capital Growth instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Capital Growth Fund performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Capital Growth Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Capital Growth Correlation, Capital Growth Hype Analysis, Capital Growth Volatility, Capital Growth History as well as Capital Growth Performance.
  
Please specify Capital Growth's target price for which you would like Capital Growth odds to be computed.

Capital Growth Target Price Odds to finish below 14.55

The tendency of Capital Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 14.55  or more in 90 days
 14.74 90 days 14.55 
about 59.65
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Capital Growth to drop to $ 14.55  or more in 90 days from now is about 59.65 (This Capital Growth Fund probability density function shows the probability of Capital Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Capital Growth price to stay between $ 14.55  and its current price of $14.74 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.85 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Capital Growth has a beta of 0.76. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Capital Growth average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Capital Growth Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Capital Growth Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Capital Growth Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Capital Growth

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Capital Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.0114.7415.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.9114.6415.37
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
13.7614.4915.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
14.4214.6414.86
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Capital Growth. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Capital Growth's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Capital Growth's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Capital Growth.

Capital Growth Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Capital Growth is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Capital Growth's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Capital Growth Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Capital Growth within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.05
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.76
σ
Overall volatility
0.23
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

Capital Growth Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Capital Growth for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Capital Growth can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund keeps 99.92% of its net assets in stocks

Capital Growth Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Capital Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Capital Growth's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Capital Growth's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

Capital Growth Technical Analysis

Capital Growth's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Capital Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Capital Growth Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Capital Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Capital Growth Predictive Forecast Models

Capital Growth's time-series forecasting models is one of many Capital Growth's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Capital Growth's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Capital Growth

Checking the ongoing alerts about Capital Growth for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Capital Growth help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund keeps 99.92% of its net assets in stocks

Other Information on Investing in Capital Mutual Fund

Capital Growth financial ratios help investors to determine whether Capital Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Capital with respect to the benefits of owning Capital Growth security.
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