Frontier Group Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.65
| ULCC Stock | USD 5.69 0.12 2.15% |
Closest to current price Frontier long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Frontier |
Frontier Group Target Price Odds to finish over 10.65
The tendency of Frontier Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 10.65 or more in 90 days |
| 5.69 | 90 days | 10.65 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Frontier Group to move over $ 10.65 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Frontier Group Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Frontier Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Frontier Group Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 5.69 and $ 10.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 39.19 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.69 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Frontier Group will likely underperform. Additionally Frontier Group Holdings has an alpha of 0.5272, implying that it can generate a 0.53 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Frontier Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Frontier Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Frontier Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Frontier Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Frontier Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Frontier Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Frontier Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Frontier Group Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Frontier Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.53 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.69 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Frontier Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Frontier Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Frontier Group Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Frontier Group is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Frontier Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Frontier Group Holdings currently holds 3.46 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 6.52, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Frontier Group Holdings has a current ratio of 0.61, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Frontier Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 3.59 B. Net Loss for the year was (11 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 325 M. | |
| Frontier Group Holdings currently holds about 766 M in cash with (261 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.52. | |
| Frontier Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 47.0% of Frontier Group outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: UBS Initiates Coverage on Airlines, Highlights Mixed Outlook for RASM Growth |
Frontier Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Frontier Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Frontier Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Frontier Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 220.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 609 M |
Frontier Group Technical Analysis
Frontier Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Frontier Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Frontier Group Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Frontier Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Frontier Group Predictive Forecast Models
Frontier Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Frontier Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Frontier Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Frontier Group Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Frontier Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Frontier Group Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Frontier Group is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Frontier Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Frontier Group Holdings currently holds 3.46 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 6.52, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Frontier Group Holdings has a current ratio of 0.61, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Frontier Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 3.59 B. Net Loss for the year was (11 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 325 M. | |
| Frontier Group Holdings currently holds about 766 M in cash with (261 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.52. | |
| Frontier Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 47.0% of Frontier Group outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: UBS Initiates Coverage on Airlines, Highlights Mixed Outlook for RASM Growth |
Check out Frontier Group Backtesting, Frontier Group Valuation, Frontier Group Correlation, Frontier Group Hype Analysis, Frontier Group Volatility, Frontier Group History as well as Frontier Group Performance. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Passenger Airlines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Frontier Group. If investors know Frontier will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Frontier Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | Earnings Share (0.03) | Revenue Per Share 16.392 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.059 | Return On Assets (0.03) |
The market value of Frontier Group Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Frontier that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Frontier Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Frontier Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Frontier Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Frontier Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Frontier Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Frontier Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Frontier Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.