Universal Music (Netherlands) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 22.41
| UMG Stock | 22.58 0.63 2.87% |
Universal |
Universal Music Target Price Odds to finish below 22.41
The tendency of Universal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 22.41 or more in 90 days |
| 22.58 | 90 days | 22.41 | roughly 2.58 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Universal Music to drop to 22.41 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.58 (This Universal Music Group probability density function shows the probability of Universal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Universal Music Group price to stay between 22.41 and its current price of 22.58 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Universal Music has a beta of 0.3. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Universal Music average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Universal Music Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Universal Music Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Universal Music Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Universal Music
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal Music Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Universal Music Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Universal Music is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Universal Music's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Universal Music Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Universal Music within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Universal Music Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Universal Music for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Universal Music Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Universal Music generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 48.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Universal Music Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Universal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Universal Music's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Universal Music's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B |
Universal Music Technical Analysis
Universal Music's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Universal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Universal Music Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Universal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Universal Music Predictive Forecast Models
Universal Music's time-series forecasting models is one of many Universal Music's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Universal Music's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Universal Music Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Universal Music for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Universal Music Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Universal Music generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 48.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Additional Tools for Universal Stock Analysis
When running Universal Music's price analysis, check to measure Universal Music's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Universal Music is operating at the current time. Most of Universal Music's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Universal Music's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Universal Music's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Universal Music to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.