Unum Group Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 24.75
| UNMA Stock | USD 25.29 0.19 0.76% |
Unum |
Unum Target Price Odds to finish below 24.75
The tendency of Unum Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 24.75 or more in 90 days |
| 25.29 | 90 days | 24.75 | nearly 4.04 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Unum to drop to $ 24.75 or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.04 (This Unum Group probability density function shows the probability of Unum Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Unum Group price to stay between $ 24.75 and its current price of $25.29 at the end of the 90-day period is about 51.24 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Unum has a beta of 0.0411. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Unum average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Unum Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Unum Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Unum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Unum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Unum Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Unum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Unum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Unum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Unum Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Unum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.004 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.24 |
Unum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Unum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Unum Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Unum Group is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Unum Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
Unum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Unum Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Unum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Unum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 197.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 970.9 M |
Unum Technical Analysis
Unum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Unum Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Unum Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Unum Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Unum Predictive Forecast Models
Unum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Unum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Unum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Unum Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Unum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Unum Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Unum Group is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Unum Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
Check out Unum Backtesting, Unum Valuation, Unum Correlation, Unum Hype Analysis, Unum Volatility, Unum History as well as Unum Performance. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Life & Health Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Unum. If investors know Unum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Unum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Dividend Share 0.95 |
The market value of Unum Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Unum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Unum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Unum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Unum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Unum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Unum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Unum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Unum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.