Upm Kymmene Oyj Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 28.56
| UPMKF Stock | USD 28.56 2.06 7.77% |
UPM-Kymmene |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Target Price Odds to finish below 28.56
The tendency of UPM-Kymmene Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 28.56 | 90 days | 28.56 | about 16.3 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UPM-Kymmene Oyj to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 16.3 (This UPM Kymmene Oyj probability density function shows the probability of UPM-Kymmene Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon UPM Kymmene Oyj has a beta of -0.58. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding UPM-Kymmene Oyj are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, UPM Kymmene Oyj is likely to outperform the market. Additionally UPM Kymmene Oyj has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. UPM-Kymmene Oyj Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for UPM-Kymmene Oyj
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UPM Kymmene Oyj. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.UPM-Kymmene Oyj Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UPM-Kymmene Oyj is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UPM-Kymmene Oyj's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UPM Kymmene Oyj, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UPM-Kymmene Oyj within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.58 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of UPM-Kymmene Oyj for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for UPM Kymmene Oyj can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| UPM Kymmene Oyj generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| UPM Kymmene Oyj has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UPM-Kymmene Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UPM-Kymmene Oyj's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UPM-Kymmene Oyj's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 533.3 M |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Technical Analysis
UPM-Kymmene Oyj's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UPM-Kymmene Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UPM Kymmene Oyj. In general, you should focus on analyzing UPM-Kymmene Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Predictive Forecast Models
UPM-Kymmene Oyj's time-series forecasting models is one of many UPM-Kymmene Oyj's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UPM-Kymmene Oyj's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about UPM Kymmene Oyj
Checking the ongoing alerts about UPM-Kymmene Oyj for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for UPM Kymmene Oyj help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| UPM Kymmene Oyj generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| UPM Kymmene Oyj has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Other Information on Investing in UPM-Kymmene Pink Sheet
UPM-Kymmene Oyj financial ratios help investors to determine whether UPM-Kymmene Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in UPM-Kymmene with respect to the benefits of owning UPM-Kymmene Oyj security.