Urban Outfitters Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 30.11
| URBN Stock | USD 40.46 1.48 3.80% |
Urban |
Urban Outfitters Target Price Odds to finish below 30.11
The tendency of Urban Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 30.11 or more in 90 days |
| 40.46 | 90 days | 30.11 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Urban Outfitters to drop to $ 30.11 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Urban Outfitters probability density function shows the probability of Urban Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Urban Outfitters price to stay between $ 30.11 and its current price of $40.46 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.06 . This usually implies Urban Outfitters market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Urban Outfitters is expected to follow. Additionally Urban Outfitters has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Urban Outfitters Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Urban Outfitters
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Urban Outfitters. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Urban Outfitters Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Urban Outfitters is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Urban Outfitters' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Urban Outfitters, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Urban Outfitters within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Urban Outfitters Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Urban Outfitters for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Urban Outfitters can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Urban Outfitters has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 75.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Urban Outfitters Inc Shares Up 4.6 percent on Nov 22 |
Urban Outfitters Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Urban Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Urban Outfitters' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Urban Outfitters' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 94.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 465.1 M |
Urban Outfitters Technical Analysis
Urban Outfitters' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Urban Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Urban Outfitters. In general, you should focus on analyzing Urban Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Urban Outfitters Predictive Forecast Models
Urban Outfitters' time-series forecasting models is one of many Urban Outfitters' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Urban Outfitters' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Urban Outfitters
Checking the ongoing alerts about Urban Outfitters for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Urban Outfitters help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Urban Outfitters has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 75.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Urban Outfitters Inc Shares Up 4.6 percent on Nov 22 |
Check out Urban Outfitters Backtesting, Urban Outfitters Valuation, Urban Outfitters Correlation, Urban Outfitters Hype Analysis, Urban Outfitters Volatility, Urban Outfitters History as well as Urban Outfitters Performance. To learn how to invest in Urban Stock, please use our How to Invest in Urban Outfitters guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Urban Outfitters. If investors know Urban will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Urban Outfitters listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.127 | Earnings Share 3.27 | Revenue Per Share 57.241 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.063 | Return On Assets 0.0621 |
The market value of Urban Outfitters is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Urban that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Urban Outfitters' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Urban Outfitters' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Urban Outfitters' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Urban Outfitters' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Urban Outfitters' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Urban Outfitters is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Urban Outfitters' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.