AEP TEX CENT Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 107.92
| 0010EPAF5 | 106.66 1.04 0.97% |
0010EPAF5 |
0010EPAF5 Target Price Odds to finish over 107.92
The tendency of 0010EPAF5 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 107.92 or more in 90 days |
| 106.66 | 90 days | 107.92 | about 79.43 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 0010EPAF5 to move over 107.92 or more in 90 days from now is about 79.43 (This AEP TEX CENT probability density function shows the probability of 0010EPAF5 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AEP TEX CENT price to stay between its current price of 106.66 and 107.92 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.76 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AEP TEX CENT has a beta of -0.0082. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 0010EPAF5 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, AEP TEX CENT is likely to outperform the market. Additionally AEP TEX CENT has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. 0010EPAF5 Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for 0010EPAF5
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AEP TEX CENT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.0010EPAF5 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 0010EPAF5 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 0010EPAF5's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AEP TEX CENT, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 0010EPAF5 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0082 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
0010EPAF5 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 0010EPAF5 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AEP TEX CENT can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AEP TEX CENT generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
0010EPAF5 Technical Analysis
0010EPAF5's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 0010EPAF5 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AEP TEX CENT. In general, you should focus on analyzing 0010EPAF5 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
0010EPAF5 Predictive Forecast Models
0010EPAF5's time-series forecasting models is one of many 0010EPAF5's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 0010EPAF5's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AEP TEX CENT
Checking the ongoing alerts about 0010EPAF5 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AEP TEX CENT help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AEP TEX CENT generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in 0010EPAF5 Bond
0010EPAF5 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 0010EPAF5 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 0010EPAF5 with respect to the benefits of owning 0010EPAF5 security.