AETNA INC NEW Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 99.06

00817YAQ1   99.07  0.00  0.00%   
AETNA's future price is the expected price of AETNA instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of AETNA INC NEW performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out AETNA Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, AETNA Correlation, AETNA Hype Analysis, AETNA Volatility, AETNA History as well as AETNA Performance.
  
Please specify AETNA's target price for which you would like AETNA odds to be computed.

AETNA Target Price Odds to finish over 99.06

The tendency of AETNA Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  99.06  in 90 days
 99.07 90 days 99.06 
roughly 97.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AETNA to stay above  99.06  in 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This AETNA INC NEW probability density function shows the probability of AETNA Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AETNA INC NEW price to stay between  99.06  and its current price of 99.07 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AETNA INC NEW has a beta of -0.0297. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding AETNA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, AETNA INC NEW is likely to outperform the market. Additionally AETNA INC NEW has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   AETNA Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for AETNA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AETNA INC NEW. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
98.9199.0799.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
91.8792.03108.98
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
98.1098.2698.42
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
98.6099.61100.61
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AETNA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AETNA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AETNA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in AETNA INC NEW.

AETNA Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AETNA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AETNA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AETNA INC NEW, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AETNA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.01
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.03
σ
Overall volatility
0.31
Ir
Information ratio -0.48

AETNA Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AETNA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AETNA INC NEW can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AETNA INC NEW generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

AETNA Technical Analysis

AETNA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AETNA Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AETNA INC NEW. In general, you should focus on analyzing AETNA Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

AETNA Predictive Forecast Models

AETNA's time-series forecasting models is one of many AETNA's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AETNA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about AETNA INC NEW

Checking the ongoing alerts about AETNA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AETNA INC NEW help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AETNA INC NEW generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Other Information on Investing in AETNA Bond

AETNA financial ratios help investors to determine whether AETNA Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AETNA with respect to the benefits of owning AETNA security.