AMGN 56 02 MAR 43 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 101.02
| 031162DS6 | 102.14 0.99 0.98% |
031162DS6 |
031162DS6 Target Price Odds to finish below 101.02
The tendency of 031162DS6 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 101.02 or more in 90 days |
| 102.14 | 90 days | 101.02 | about 27.67 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 031162DS6 to drop to 101.02 or more in 90 days from now is about 27.67 (This AMGN 56 02 MAR 43 probability density function shows the probability of 031162DS6 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AMGN 56 02 price to stay between 101.02 and its current price of 102.14 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.57 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AMGN 56 02 MAR 43 has a beta of -0.0043. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 031162DS6 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, AMGN 56 02 MAR 43 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally AMGN 56 02 MAR 43 has an alpha of 7.0E-4, implying that it can generate a 6.91E-4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 031162DS6 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 031162DS6
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMGN 56 02. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.031162DS6 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 031162DS6 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 031162DS6's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AMGN 56 02 MAR 43, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 031162DS6 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.0007 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0043 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
031162DS6 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 031162DS6 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AMGN 56 02 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AMGN 56 02 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
031162DS6 Technical Analysis
031162DS6's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 031162DS6 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AMGN 56 02 MAR 43. In general, you should focus on analyzing 031162DS6 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
031162DS6 Predictive Forecast Models
031162DS6's time-series forecasting models is one of many 031162DS6's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 031162DS6's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AMGN 56 02
Checking the ongoing alerts about 031162DS6 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AMGN 56 02 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AMGN 56 02 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in 031162DS6 Bond
031162DS6 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 031162DS6 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 031162DS6 with respect to the benefits of owning 031162DS6 security.