Obligation Apple 1125 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 91.93
| 037833DT4 | 91.40 6.85 6.97% |
Obligation |
Obligation Target Price Odds to finish over 91.93
The tendency of Obligation Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 91.93 or more in 90 days |
| 91.40 | 90 days | 91.93 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Obligation to move over 91.93 or more in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Obligation Apple 1125 probability density function shows the probability of Obligation Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Obligation Apple 1125 price to stay between its current price of 91.40 and 91.93 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Obligation has a beta of 0.17. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Obligation average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Obligation Apple 1125 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Obligation Apple 1125 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Obligation Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Obligation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Obligation Apple 1125. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Obligation Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Obligation is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Obligation's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Obligation Apple 1125, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Obligation within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.98 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
Obligation Technical Analysis
Obligation's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Obligation Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Obligation Apple 1125. In general, you should focus on analyzing Obligation Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Obligation Predictive Forecast Models
Obligation's time-series forecasting models is one of many Obligation's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Obligation's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Obligation in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Obligation's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Obligation options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Obligation Bond
Obligation financial ratios help investors to determine whether Obligation Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Obligation with respect to the benefits of owning Obligation security.