BANK OF NEW Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 94.53
| 06406RAN7 | 97.45 1.38 1.40% |
06406RAN7 |
06406RAN7 Target Price Odds to finish over 94.53
The tendency of 06406RAN7 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 94.53 in 90 days |
| 97.45 | 90 days | 94.53 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 06406RAN7 to stay above 94.53 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This BANK OF NEW probability density function shows the probability of 06406RAN7 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BANK OF NEW price to stay between 94.53 and its current price of 97.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.64 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 06406RAN7 has a beta of 0.0369. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 06406RAN7 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding BANK OF NEW will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally BANK OF NEW has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. 06406RAN7 Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for 06406RAN7
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BANK OF NEW. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.06406RAN7 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 06406RAN7 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 06406RAN7's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BANK OF NEW, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 06406RAN7 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.96 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
06406RAN7 Technical Analysis
06406RAN7's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 06406RAN7 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BANK OF NEW. In general, you should focus on analyzing 06406RAN7 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
06406RAN7 Predictive Forecast Models
06406RAN7's time-series forecasting models is one of many 06406RAN7's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 06406RAN7's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 06406RAN7 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 06406RAN7's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 06406RAN7 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 06406RAN7 Bond
06406RAN7 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 06406RAN7 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 06406RAN7 with respect to the benefits of owning 06406RAN7 security.