BMY 37 15 MAR 52 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 81.34
| 110122DW5 | 79.67 4.95 6.62% |
110122DW5 |
110122DW5 Target Price Odds to finish over 81.34
The tendency of 110122DW5 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 81.34 or more in 90 days |
| 79.67 | 90 days | 81.34 | about 13.56 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 110122DW5 to move over 81.34 or more in 90 days from now is about 13.56 (This BMY 37 15 MAR 52 probability density function shows the probability of 110122DW5 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BMY 37 15 price to stay between its current price of 79.67 and 81.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.11 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon BMY 37 15 MAR 52 has a beta of -0.39. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 110122DW5 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, BMY 37 15 MAR 52 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally BMY 37 15 MAR 52 has an alpha of 0.1501, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 110122DW5 Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for 110122DW5
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BMY 37 15. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.110122DW5 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 110122DW5 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 110122DW5's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BMY 37 15 MAR 52, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 110122DW5 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0039 |
110122DW5 Technical Analysis
110122DW5's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 110122DW5 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BMY 37 15 MAR 52. In general, you should focus on analyzing 110122DW5 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
110122DW5 Predictive Forecast Models
110122DW5's time-series forecasting models is one of many 110122DW5's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 110122DW5's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 110122DW5 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 110122DW5's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 110122DW5 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 110122DW5 Bond
110122DW5 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 110122DW5 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 110122DW5 with respect to the benefits of owning 110122DW5 security.