COF 2618 02 NOV 32 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 81.55
| 14040HCJ2 | 85.22 0.86 1.02% |
14040HCJ2 |
14040HCJ2 Target Price Odds to finish below 81.55
The tendency of 14040HCJ2 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 81.55 or more in 90 days |
| 85.22 | 90 days | 81.55 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 14040HCJ2 to drop to 81.55 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This COF 2618 02 NOV 32 probability density function shows the probability of 14040HCJ2 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of COF 2618 02 price to stay between 81.55 and its current price of 85.22 at the end of the 90-day period is about 79.39 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 14040HCJ2 has a beta of 0.0494. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 14040HCJ2 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding COF 2618 02 NOV 32 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally COF 2618 02 NOV 32 has an alpha of 0.0368, implying that it can generate a 0.0368 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 14040HCJ2 Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for 14040HCJ2
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as COF 2618 02. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.14040HCJ2 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 14040HCJ2 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 14040HCJ2's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold COF 2618 02 NOV 32, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 14040HCJ2 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
14040HCJ2 Technical Analysis
14040HCJ2's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 14040HCJ2 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of COF 2618 02 NOV 32. In general, you should focus on analyzing 14040HCJ2 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
14040HCJ2 Predictive Forecast Models
14040HCJ2's time-series forecasting models is one of many 14040HCJ2's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 14040HCJ2's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 14040HCJ2 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 14040HCJ2's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 14040HCJ2 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 14040HCJ2 Bond
14040HCJ2 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 14040HCJ2 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 14040HCJ2 with respect to the benefits of owning 14040HCJ2 security.