CATERPILLAR INC 53 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 105.07
| 149123BL4 | 105.11 1.22 1.15% |
CATERPILLAR |
CATERPILLAR Target Price Odds to finish below 105.07
The tendency of CATERPILLAR Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 105.07 or more in 90 days |
| 105.11 | 90 days | 105.07 | about 32.57 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CATERPILLAR to drop to 105.07 or more in 90 days from now is about 32.57 (This CATERPILLAR INC 53 probability density function shows the probability of CATERPILLAR Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CATERPILLAR INC 53 price to stay between 105.07 and its current price of 105.11 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CATERPILLAR INC 53 has a beta of -0.0298. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding CATERPILLAR are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, CATERPILLAR INC 53 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally CATERPILLAR INC 53 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. CATERPILLAR Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CATERPILLAR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CATERPILLAR INC 53. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CATERPILLAR Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CATERPILLAR is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CATERPILLAR's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CATERPILLAR INC 53, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CATERPILLAR within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
CATERPILLAR Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CATERPILLAR for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CATERPILLAR INC 53 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CATERPILLAR INC 53 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
CATERPILLAR Technical Analysis
CATERPILLAR's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CATERPILLAR Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CATERPILLAR INC 53. In general, you should focus on analyzing CATERPILLAR Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CATERPILLAR Predictive Forecast Models
CATERPILLAR's time-series forecasting models is one of many CATERPILLAR's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CATERPILLAR's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CATERPILLAR INC 53
Checking the ongoing alerts about CATERPILLAR for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CATERPILLAR INC 53 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CATERPILLAR INC 53 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in CATERPILLAR Bond
CATERPILLAR financial ratios help investors to determine whether CATERPILLAR Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CATERPILLAR with respect to the benefits of owning CATERPILLAR security.