CHARTER MUNICATIONS OPER Odds of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 96.79

161175BC7   99.79  1.15  1.17%   
CHARTER's future price is the expected price of CHARTER instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of CHARTER MUNICATIONS OPER performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out CHARTER Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, CHARTER Correlation, CHARTER Hype Analysis, CHARTER Volatility, CHARTER History as well as CHARTER Performance.
  
Please specify CHARTER's target price for which you would like CHARTER odds to be computed.

CHARTER Target Price Odds to finish below 96.79

The tendency of CHARTER Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  96.79  or more in 90 days
 99.79 90 days 96.79 
about 10.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CHARTER to drop to  96.79  or more in 90 days from now is about 10.0 (This CHARTER MUNICATIONS OPER probability density function shows the probability of CHARTER Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CHARTER MUNICATIONS OPER price to stay between  96.79  and its current price of 99.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 48.62 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CHARTER has a beta of 0.36. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, CHARTER average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CHARTER MUNICATIONS OPER will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CHARTER MUNICATIONS OPER has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   CHARTER Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for CHARTER

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CHARTER MUNICATIONS OPER. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
97.6499.79101.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
96.7098.85101.00
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
94.3696.5198.66
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
89.5396.18102.84
Details

CHARTER Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CHARTER is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CHARTER's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CHARTER MUNICATIONS OPER, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CHARTER within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.03
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.36
σ
Overall volatility
2.01
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

CHARTER Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CHARTER for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CHARTER MUNICATIONS OPER can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CHARTER generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

CHARTER Technical Analysis

CHARTER's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CHARTER Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CHARTER MUNICATIONS OPER. In general, you should focus on analyzing CHARTER Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

CHARTER Predictive Forecast Models

CHARTER's time-series forecasting models is one of many CHARTER's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CHARTER's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about CHARTER MUNICATIONS OPER

Checking the ongoing alerts about CHARTER for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CHARTER MUNICATIONS OPER help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CHARTER generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Other Information on Investing in CHARTER Bond

CHARTER financial ratios help investors to determine whether CHARTER Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CHARTER with respect to the benefits of owning CHARTER security.