CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 percent Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 93.03
| 20826FAF3 | 95.32 1.77 1.89% |
CONOCOPHILLIPS |
CONOCOPHILLIPS Target Price Odds to finish below 93.03
The tendency of CONOCOPHILLIPS Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 93.03 or more in 90 days |
| 95.32 | 90 days | 93.03 | about 13.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CONOCOPHILLIPS to drop to 93.03 or more in 90 days from now is about 13.62 (This CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 percent probability density function shows the probability of CONOCOPHILLIPS Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 price to stay between 93.03 and its current price of 95.32 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.55 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 percent has a beta of -0.37. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding CONOCOPHILLIPS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 percent is likely to outperform the market. Additionally CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 percent has an alpha of 0.0756, implying that it can generate a 0.0756 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). CONOCOPHILLIPS Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for CONOCOPHILLIPS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CONOCOPHILLIPS 415. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CONOCOPHILLIPS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CONOCOPHILLIPS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CONOCOPHILLIPS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 percent, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CONOCOPHILLIPS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.37 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
CONOCOPHILLIPS Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CONOCOPHILLIPS for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
CONOCOPHILLIPS Technical Analysis
CONOCOPHILLIPS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CONOCOPHILLIPS Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 percent. In general, you should focus on analyzing CONOCOPHILLIPS Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CONOCOPHILLIPS Predictive Forecast Models
CONOCOPHILLIPS's time-series forecasting models is one of many CONOCOPHILLIPS's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CONOCOPHILLIPS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CONOCOPHILLIPS 415
Checking the ongoing alerts about CONOCOPHILLIPS for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in CONOCOPHILLIPS Bond
CONOCOPHILLIPS financial ratios help investors to determine whether CONOCOPHILLIPS Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CONOCOPHILLIPS with respect to the benefits of owning CONOCOPHILLIPS security.