ECOPETROL S A Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 88.44
| 279158AE9 | 88.61 1.01 1.15% |
279158AE9 |
279158AE9 Target Price Odds to finish over 88.44
The tendency of 279158AE9 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 88.44 in 90 days |
| 88.61 | 90 days | 88.44 | about 57.76 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 279158AE9 to stay above 88.44 in 90 days from now is about 57.76 (This ECOPETROL S A probability density function shows the probability of 279158AE9 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ECOPETROL S A price to stay between 88.44 and its current price of 88.61 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.98 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ECOPETROL S A has a beta of -0.0764. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 279158AE9 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ECOPETROL S A is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ECOPETROL S A has an alpha of 0.0592, implying that it can generate a 0.0592 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 279158AE9 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 279158AE9
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ECOPETROL S A. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.279158AE9 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 279158AE9 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 279158AE9's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ECOPETROL S A, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 279158AE9 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.37 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
279158AE9 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 279158AE9 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ECOPETROL S A can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ECOPETROL S A generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Power Tools Market to grow by USD 16.84 Billion from 2024-2028, driven by global construction growth, with AI shaping the market evolution - Technavio |
279158AE9 Technical Analysis
279158AE9's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 279158AE9 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ECOPETROL S A. In general, you should focus on analyzing 279158AE9 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
279158AE9 Predictive Forecast Models
279158AE9's time-series forecasting models is one of many 279158AE9's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 279158AE9's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ECOPETROL S A
Checking the ongoing alerts about 279158AE9 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ECOPETROL S A help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ECOPETROL S A generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Power Tools Market to grow by USD 16.84 Billion from 2024-2028, driven by global construction growth, with AI shaping the market evolution - Technavio |
Other Information on Investing in 279158AE9 Bond
279158AE9 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 279158AE9 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 279158AE9 with respect to the benefits of owning 279158AE9 security.