FIRST AMERN FINL Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 97.85
| 31847RAF9 | 97.98 0.00 0.00% |
FIRST |
FIRST Target Price Odds to finish below 97.85
The tendency of FIRST Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 97.85 or more in 90 days |
| 97.98 | 90 days | 97.85 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FIRST to drop to 97.85 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This FIRST AMERN FINL probability density function shows the probability of FIRST Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of FIRST AMERN FINL price to stay between 97.85 and its current price of 97.98 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon FIRST has a beta of 0.0154. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, FIRST average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding FIRST AMERN FINL will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally FIRST AMERN FINL has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. FIRST Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for FIRST
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FIRST AMERN FINL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.FIRST Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FIRST is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FIRST's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FIRST AMERN FINL, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FIRST within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.39 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.39 |
FIRST Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of FIRST for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for FIRST AMERN FINL can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| FIRST AMERN FINL generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
FIRST Technical Analysis
FIRST's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FIRST Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FIRST AMERN FINL. In general, you should focus on analyzing FIRST Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FIRST Predictive Forecast Models
FIRST's time-series forecasting models is one of many FIRST's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FIRST's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about FIRST AMERN FINL
Checking the ongoing alerts about FIRST for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for FIRST AMERN FINL help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| FIRST AMERN FINL generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in FIRST Bond
FIRST financial ratios help investors to determine whether FIRST Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in FIRST with respect to the benefits of owning FIRST security.