AER 653829 21 DEC 65 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 83.49
| 44965UAA2 | 66.59 17.04 20.38% |
44965UAA2 |
44965UAA2 Target Price Odds to finish over 83.49
The tendency of 44965UAA2 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 83.49 or more in 90 days |
| 66.59 | 90 days | 83.49 | about 20.71 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 44965UAA2 to move over 83.49 or more in 90 days from now is about 20.71 (This AER 653829 21 DEC 65 probability density function shows the probability of 44965UAA2 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AER 653829 21 price to stay between its current price of 66.59 and 83.49 at the end of the 90-day period is about 79.27 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AER 653829 21 DEC 65 has a beta of -0.93. This usually implies Additionally AER 653829 21 DEC 65 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. 44965UAA2 Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for 44965UAA2
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AER 653829 21. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.44965UAA2 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 44965UAA2 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 44965UAA2's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AER 653829 21 DEC 65, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 44965UAA2 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.71 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.93 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
44965UAA2 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 44965UAA2 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AER 653829 21 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AER 653829 21 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AER 653829 21 has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
44965UAA2 Technical Analysis
44965UAA2's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 44965UAA2 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AER 653829 21 DEC 65. In general, you should focus on analyzing 44965UAA2 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
44965UAA2 Predictive Forecast Models
44965UAA2's time-series forecasting models is one of many 44965UAA2's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 44965UAA2's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AER 653829 21
Checking the ongoing alerts about 44965UAA2 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AER 653829 21 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AER 653829 21 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AER 653829 21 has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Other Information on Investing in 44965UAA2 Bond
44965UAA2 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 44965UAA2 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 44965UAA2 with respect to the benefits of owning 44965UAA2 security.