JPM 365 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 97.0
| 48128BAN1 | 89.91 7.59 7.78% |
48128BAN1 |
48128BAN1 Target Price Odds to finish below 97.0
The tendency of 48128BAN1 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 97.00 after 90 days |
| 89.91 | 90 days | 97.00 | about 63.12 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 48128BAN1 to stay under 97.00 after 90 days from now is about 63.12 (This JPM 365 probability density function shows the probability of 48128BAN1 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of 48128BAN1 price to stay between its current price of 89.91 and 97.00 at the end of the 90-day period is about 60.23 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 48128BAN1 has a beta of 0.17. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 48128BAN1 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding JPM 365 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally JPM 365 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. 48128BAN1 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 48128BAN1
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 48128BAN1. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.48128BAN1 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 48128BAN1 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 48128BAN1's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold JPM 365, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 48128BAN1 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
48128BAN1 Technical Analysis
48128BAN1's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 48128BAN1 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of JPM 365. In general, you should focus on analyzing 48128BAN1 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
48128BAN1 Predictive Forecast Models
48128BAN1's time-series forecasting models is one of many 48128BAN1's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 48128BAN1's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 48128BAN1 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 48128BAN1's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 48128BAN1 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 48128BAN1 Bond
48128BAN1 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 48128BAN1 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 48128BAN1 with respect to the benefits of owning 48128BAN1 security.