LLOYDS 5871 06 MAR 29 Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 101.67
| 539439AX7 | 103.75 1.20 1.17% |
LLOYDS |
LLOYDS Target Price Odds to finish below 101.67
The tendency of LLOYDS Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 101.67 or more in 90 days |
| 103.75 | 90 days | 101.67 | about 1.79 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of LLOYDS to drop to 101.67 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.79 (This LLOYDS 5871 06 MAR 29 probability density function shows the probability of LLOYDS Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of LLOYDS 5871 06 price to stay between 101.67 and its current price of 103.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 61.7 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon LLOYDS 5871 06 MAR 29 has a beta of -0.0631. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding LLOYDS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, LLOYDS 5871 06 MAR 29 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally LLOYDS 5871 06 MAR 29 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. LLOYDS Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for LLOYDS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LLOYDS 5871 06. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.LLOYDS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. LLOYDS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the LLOYDS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LLOYDS 5871 06 MAR 29, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of LLOYDS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0032 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.86 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.32 |
LLOYDS Technical Analysis
LLOYDS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. LLOYDS Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LLOYDS 5871 06 MAR 29. In general, you should focus on analyzing LLOYDS Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
LLOYDS Predictive Forecast Models
LLOYDS's time-series forecasting models is one of many LLOYDS's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary LLOYDS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards LLOYDS in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, LLOYDS's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from LLOYDS options trading.
Other Information on Investing in LLOYDS Bond
LLOYDS financial ratios help investors to determine whether LLOYDS Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in LLOYDS with respect to the benefits of owning LLOYDS security.