LMT 59 15 NOV 63 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 113.19
| 539830BY4 | 113.90 5.19 4.77% |
539830BY4 |
539830BY4 Target Price Odds to finish over 113.19
The tendency of 539830BY4 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 113.19 in 90 days |
| 113.90 | 90 days | 113.19 | about 36.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 539830BY4 to stay above 113.19 in 90 days from now is about 36.94 (This LMT 59 15 NOV 63 probability density function shows the probability of 539830BY4 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of LMT 59 15 price to stay between 113.19 and its current price of 113.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.39 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon LMT 59 15 NOV 63 has a beta of -0.26. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 539830BY4 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, LMT 59 15 NOV 63 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally LMT 59 15 NOV 63 has an alpha of 0.0792, implying that it can generate a 0.0792 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 539830BY4 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 539830BY4
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LMT 59 15. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.539830BY4 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 539830BY4 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 539830BY4's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LMT 59 15 NOV 63, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 539830BY4 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
539830BY4 Technical Analysis
539830BY4's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 539830BY4 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LMT 59 15 NOV 63. In general, you should focus on analyzing 539830BY4 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
539830BY4 Predictive Forecast Models
539830BY4's time-series forecasting models is one of many 539830BY4's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 539830BY4's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 539830BY4 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 539830BY4's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 539830BY4 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 539830BY4 Bond
539830BY4 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 539830BY4 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 539830BY4 with respect to the benefits of owning 539830BY4 security.