MCDONALDS P MEDIUM Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 98.61

58013MEU4   98.10  0.58  0.59%   
58013MEU4's future price is the expected price of 58013MEU4 instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of MCDONALDS P MEDIUM performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out 58013MEU4 Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, 58013MEU4 Correlation, 58013MEU4 Hype Analysis, 58013MEU4 Volatility, 58013MEU4 History as well as 58013MEU4 Performance.
  
Please specify 58013MEU4's target price for which you would like 58013MEU4 odds to be computed.

58013MEU4 Target Price Odds to finish below 98.61

The tendency of 58013MEU4 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under  98.61  after 90 days
 98.10 90 days 98.61 
about 17.52
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 58013MEU4 to stay under  98.61  after 90 days from now is about 17.52 (This MCDONALDS P MEDIUM probability density function shows the probability of 58013MEU4 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MCDONALDS P MEDIUM price to stay between its current price of  98.10  and  98.61  at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.53 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon MCDONALDS P MEDIUM has a beta of -0.0205. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 58013MEU4 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, MCDONALDS P MEDIUM is likely to outperform the market. Additionally MCDONALDS P MEDIUM has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   58013MEU4 Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for 58013MEU4

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MCDONALDS P MEDIUM. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
97.8098.1098.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
97.7798.0798.37
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
97.4397.7398.03
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
97.8199.02100.22
Details

58013MEU4 Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 58013MEU4 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 58013MEU4's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MCDONALDS P MEDIUM, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 58013MEU4 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.02
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.02
σ
Overall volatility
0.53
Ir
Information ratio -0.27

58013MEU4 Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 58013MEU4 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MCDONALDS P MEDIUM can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
MCDONALDS P MEDIUM generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

58013MEU4 Technical Analysis

58013MEU4's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 58013MEU4 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MCDONALDS P MEDIUM. In general, you should focus on analyzing 58013MEU4 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

58013MEU4 Predictive Forecast Models

58013MEU4's time-series forecasting models is one of many 58013MEU4's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 58013MEU4's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about MCDONALDS P MEDIUM

Checking the ongoing alerts about 58013MEU4 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MCDONALDS P MEDIUM help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
MCDONALDS P MEDIUM generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Other Information on Investing in 58013MEU4 Bond

58013MEU4 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 58013MEU4 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 58013MEU4 with respect to the benefits of owning 58013MEU4 security.