Murphy Oil Corp Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 97.64
| 626717AA0 | 105.72 1.52 1.46% |
Murphy |
Murphy Target Price Odds to finish below 97.64
The tendency of Murphy Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 97.64 or more in 90 days |
| 105.72 | 90 days | 97.64 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Murphy to drop to 97.64 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Murphy Oil Corp probability density function shows the probability of Murphy Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Murphy Oil Corp price to stay between 97.64 and its current price of 105.72 at the end of the 90-day period is about 72.33 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Murphy has a beta of 0.39. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Murphy average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Murphy Oil Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Murphy Oil Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Murphy Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Murphy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Murphy Oil Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Murphy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Murphy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Murphy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Murphy Oil Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Murphy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.97 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Murphy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Murphy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Murphy Oil Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Murphy Oil Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Murphy Technical Analysis
Murphy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Murphy Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Murphy Oil Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Murphy Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Murphy Predictive Forecast Models
Murphy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Murphy's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Murphy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Murphy Oil Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Murphy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Murphy Oil Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Murphy Oil Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in Murphy Bond
Murphy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Murphy Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Murphy with respect to the benefits of owning Murphy security.