NEW ENGLAND TEL Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 116.55
| 644239AY1 | 115.86 2.18 1.92% |
644239AY1 |
644239AY1 Target Price Odds to finish below 116.55
The tendency of 644239AY1 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 116.55 after 90 days |
| 115.86 | 90 days | 116.55 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 644239AY1 to stay under 116.55 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This NEW ENGLAND TEL probability density function shows the probability of 644239AY1 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NEW ENGLAND TEL price to stay between its current price of 115.86 and 116.55 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.42 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 644239AY1 has a beta of 0.22. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 644239AY1 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding NEW ENGLAND TEL will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally NEW ENGLAND TEL has an alpha of 0.0428, implying that it can generate a 0.0428 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 644239AY1 Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for 644239AY1
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NEW ENGLAND TEL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.644239AY1 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 644239AY1 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 644239AY1's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NEW ENGLAND TEL, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 644239AY1 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
644239AY1 Technical Analysis
644239AY1's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 644239AY1 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NEW ENGLAND TEL. In general, you should focus on analyzing 644239AY1 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
644239AY1 Predictive Forecast Models
644239AY1's time-series forecasting models is one of many 644239AY1's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 644239AY1's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 644239AY1 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 644239AY1's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 644239AY1 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 644239AY1 Bond
644239AY1 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 644239AY1 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 644239AY1 with respect to the benefits of owning 644239AY1 security.