NEWFIELD EXPL 5375 Odds of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 100.48
| 651290AR9 | 100.80 0.49 0.49% |
NEWFIELD |
NEWFIELD Target Price Odds to finish over 100.48
The tendency of NEWFIELD Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 100.48 in 90 days |
| 100.80 | 90 days | 100.48 | about 35.38 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NEWFIELD to stay above 100.48 in 90 days from now is about 35.38 (This NEWFIELD EXPL 5375 probability density function shows the probability of NEWFIELD Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NEWFIELD EXPL 5375 price to stay between 100.48 and its current price of 100.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.5 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NEWFIELD EXPL 5375 has a beta of -0.0387. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NEWFIELD are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NEWFIELD EXPL 5375 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally NEWFIELD EXPL 5375 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. NEWFIELD Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NEWFIELD
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NEWFIELD EXPL 5375. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NEWFIELD Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NEWFIELD is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NEWFIELD's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NEWFIELD EXPL 5375, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NEWFIELD within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0047 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.31 |
NEWFIELD Technical Analysis
NEWFIELD's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NEWFIELD Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NEWFIELD EXPL 5375. In general, you should focus on analyzing NEWFIELD Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NEWFIELD Predictive Forecast Models
NEWFIELD's time-series forecasting models is one of many NEWFIELD's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NEWFIELD's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NEWFIELD in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NEWFIELD's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NEWFIELD options trading.
Other Information on Investing in NEWFIELD Bond
NEWFIELD financial ratios help investors to determine whether NEWFIELD Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NEWFIELD with respect to the benefits of owning NEWFIELD security.