Nova Chemicals 525 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 96.19
| 66977WAR0 | 94.00 5.00 5.05% |
66977WAR0 |
66977WAR0 Target Price Odds to finish below 96.19
The tendency of 66977WAR0 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 96.19 after 90 days |
| 94.00 | 90 days | 96.19 | about 31.77 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 66977WAR0 to stay under 96.19 after 90 days from now is about 31.77 (This Nova Chemicals 525 probability density function shows the probability of 66977WAR0 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Nova Chemicals 525 price to stay between its current price of 94.00 and 96.19 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.38 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Nova Chemicals 525 has a beta of -0.22. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 66977WAR0 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Nova Chemicals 525 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Nova Chemicals 525 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. 66977WAR0 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 66977WAR0
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nova Chemicals 525. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.66977WAR0 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 66977WAR0 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 66977WAR0's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nova Chemicals 525, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 66977WAR0 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.82 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
66977WAR0 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 66977WAR0 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nova Chemicals 525 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Nova Chemicals 525 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
66977WAR0 Technical Analysis
66977WAR0's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 66977WAR0 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nova Chemicals 525. In general, you should focus on analyzing 66977WAR0 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
66977WAR0 Predictive Forecast Models
66977WAR0's time-series forecasting models is one of many 66977WAR0's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 66977WAR0's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Nova Chemicals 525
Checking the ongoing alerts about 66977WAR0 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nova Chemicals 525 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Nova Chemicals 525 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in 66977WAR0 Bond
66977WAR0 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 66977WAR0 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 66977WAR0 with respect to the benefits of owning 66977WAR0 security.