NOVARTIS CAP P Odds of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 84.18
| 66989HAF5 | 83.77 0.34 0.41% |
NOVARTIS |
NOVARTIS Target Price Odds to finish over 84.18
The tendency of NOVARTIS Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 84.18 or more in 90 days |
| 83.77 | 90 days | 84.18 | about 48.22 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NOVARTIS to move over 84.18 or more in 90 days from now is about 48.22 (This NOVARTIS CAP P probability density function shows the probability of NOVARTIS Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NOVARTIS CAP P price to stay between its current price of 83.77 and 84.18 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.61 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NOVARTIS CAP P has a beta of -0.27. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NOVARTIS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NOVARTIS CAP P is likely to outperform the market. Additionally NOVARTIS CAP P has an alpha of 0.0749, implying that it can generate a 0.0749 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NOVARTIS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NOVARTIS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NOVARTIS CAP P. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NOVARTIS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NOVARTIS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NOVARTIS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NOVARTIS CAP P, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NOVARTIS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.47 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
NOVARTIS Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NOVARTIS for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NOVARTIS CAP P can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NOVARTIS CAP P generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
NOVARTIS Technical Analysis
NOVARTIS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NOVARTIS Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NOVARTIS CAP P. In general, you should focus on analyzing NOVARTIS Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NOVARTIS Predictive Forecast Models
NOVARTIS's time-series forecasting models is one of many NOVARTIS's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NOVARTIS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NOVARTIS CAP P
Checking the ongoing alerts about NOVARTIS for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NOVARTIS CAP P help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NOVARTIS CAP P generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in NOVARTIS Bond
NOVARTIS financial ratios help investors to determine whether NOVARTIS Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NOVARTIS with respect to the benefits of owning NOVARTIS security.