NOVARTIS CAP P Odds of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 96.37
| 66989HAN8 | 97.20 0.19 0.20% |
NOVARTIS |
NOVARTIS Target Price Odds to finish below 96.37
The tendency of NOVARTIS Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 96.37 or more in 90 days |
| 97.20 | 90 days | 96.37 | about 8.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NOVARTIS to drop to 96.37 or more in 90 days from now is about 8.25 (This NOVARTIS CAP P probability density function shows the probability of NOVARTIS Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NOVARTIS CAP P price to stay between 96.37 and its current price of 97.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.22 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NOVARTIS has a beta of 0.1. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, NOVARTIS average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding NOVARTIS CAP P will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally NOVARTIS CAP P has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. NOVARTIS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NOVARTIS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NOVARTIS CAP P. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NOVARTIS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NOVARTIS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NOVARTIS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NOVARTIS CAP P, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NOVARTIS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.81 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.34 |
NOVARTIS Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NOVARTIS for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NOVARTIS CAP P can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NOVARTIS CAP P generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
NOVARTIS Technical Analysis
NOVARTIS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NOVARTIS Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NOVARTIS CAP P. In general, you should focus on analyzing NOVARTIS Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NOVARTIS Predictive Forecast Models
NOVARTIS's time-series forecasting models is one of many NOVARTIS's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NOVARTIS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NOVARTIS CAP P
Checking the ongoing alerts about NOVARTIS for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NOVARTIS CAP P help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NOVARTIS CAP P generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in NOVARTIS Bond
NOVARTIS financial ratios help investors to determine whether NOVARTIS Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NOVARTIS with respect to the benefits of owning NOVARTIS security.